Oral Obesity Drugs: The Next Frontier in Weight Loss Treatment

The pharmaceutical industry is on the cusp of a significant breakthrough in obesity treatment, with oral weight loss medications poised to reshape the market. As the race to develop effective and convenient anti-obesity drugs intensifies, several major players are vying for a share of what Goldman Sachs predicts could be a $100 billion market by 2030.

Eli Lilly's Orforglipron: Setting the Stage

Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 therapy, orforglipron, recently completed the first of two Phase III readouts. While the results fell short of some analysts' expectations, they have nonetheless reinvigorated the competition in the oral weight loss drug space. Truist Securities noted that the data support approval but "leaves room for competition."

In the ATTAIN-1 study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, orforglipron demonstrated a 9.1% placebo-adjusted weight loss at its highest dose. BMO Capital Markets analysts pointed out demographic factors that may have influenced the results, including a higher proportion of male participants and those of Hispanic or Latino heritage, both groups known to have potentially reduced sensitivity to GLP-1 agents.

The Competitive Landscape

While Eli Lilly may have the "first mover" advantage, several other pharmaceutical giants are hot on its heels:

1. Novo Nordisk: Already a leader in injectable weight loss treatments with Wegovy (semaglutide), Novo Nordisk has submitted a new drug application to the FDA for an oral formulation. A decision is expected by the end of Q4 2025. In the OASIS 4 trial, 25 mg of oral semaglutide reduced body weight by 16.6% among adherent participants, compared to 2.7% in the placebo group.

2. Viking Therapeutics: Their lead asset, VK2735, is in Phase II trials with readouts expected in the second half of 2025.

3. Roche: The company's CT-996 is currently in Phase I, with Phase II trials set to begin in 2025.

4. Other contenders: Structure Therapeutics (aleniglipron), Regor Therapeutics (RGT-075), Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN-601), and Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (bivamelagon) are all in various stages of clinical development for oral obesity treatments.

Market Potential and Patient Benefits

An IQVIA report reveals that 43% of anti-obesity assets currently in development are orally administered. By 2030, oral treatments are expected to represent 25% of the anti-obesity therapeutic market.

William Blair analyst Andy Hsieh highlighted the potential benefits for patients, noting that oral medications could open up treatment options for those who are "extremely needle-phobic" or simply prefer pills to injections. From a manufacturing perspective, Mizuho Securities' Graig Suvannavejh added that oral small molecule drugs are easier to produce, potentially increasing accessibility and lowering prices.

As the pharmaceutical industry continues to innovate in the fight against obesity, the coming years promise to bring new, more convenient options for patients seeking effective weight loss treatments.